- Following the sharps isn't always wise betting advice but it generally is smart to follow.
- Fading the public and their money is often a wise choice as well to beat the books.
- Over 90% of the money is on the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers over.
NEW YORK – When betting on the NFL it is important to know a few categories of where the sportsbooks are standings. NFL books don’t release their numbers at kickoff but they do rely on some information to help bettors.
Some of the games start at 1 p.m. EST so live betting is the best bet on these NFL games but for Sunday Night Football and the late slate, the information is perfect.
There is no set strategy for NFL betting and the sportsbooks’ information is only stats – no real test. Still, some like to break to down and use however much of that info to their point.
Where The Sharps Are Betting
When following the sharps or experienced bettors, it’s easiest to find the matchups with just over half of the bets and a larger percentage of the money.
For the Week 4 action, 51% of the bets and 54% of the money was on the moneyline for Las Vegas. With +155 odds, it seems like a wise play against a Buffalo Bills team that has had somewhat of an easy schedule.
A similar situation is there in the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles game, where half of the wagers and 55% of the money is on the Niners’ spread.
Though they are -190 favorites, the Eagles have struggled mightily to start the season.
However, the 49ers are still an injury focused team at the current moment, and laying nearly -200 odds is a tough ask.
Where The Public Is Betting
The public is loving the over for the Arizona Cardinals and Carolina Panthers game. With nearly three-fifths of all wagers on this side of the line, the handle exceeds it even further. Takin up 62% of the money, the public is hoping for a high scoring matchup.
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With a Ron Rivera led team and a Kliff Kingsbury defense that has held opposing quarterbacks to a league’s seventh-best 79.7 QB rating, the under could shock a few of hopeful bettors.
Tampa Bay has Tom Brady and the love is always present. With a strong following in Florida as well as the northeast, 61% of the betting wagers are on the moneyline of the Bucs (-345). With over three-quarters of the handle on the moneyline, this has been a heavy play from the public.
Those live betting on the NFL may be in for more luck and find better odds, should the Bucs fall back from the start or find it to be a closer game than anticipated.
What Is Getting The Most Action?
Arizona is a three-point favorite on the road over the Carolina Panthers. With 92% of the bet total and 90% of the money, the NFL betting action is extremely lopsided here.
Home underdogs have gone 7-7 ATS this season, leaving Panthers’ bettors (or in this case the online sportsbooks) in a prime position to capitalize.
The Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers are seeing one strong consistency in their betting trends – the over. With 90% of the money and 88% of the bets, the Falcons and Packers over (56.5) seems like a sure hit.
The over has hit in six of the last seven Falcons games and in all five of the Packers most recent games. This could be the perfect fade the money opportunity but it seems nearly impossible to go against this betting trend as well.
Michael spends most of his time betting on over/unders and analyzing algorithms in attempts to beat the book. His focus on statistics comes from an early understanding of mathematics as well as knowledge of opportunity costs. Michael enjoys playing basketball and reading about the NBA whenever he has the free time. When he is not writing, he can be found in Mississippi hitting the sportsbooks and enjoying a margarita… on the rocks, no salt.
