Using Fantasy Football To Bet Receiver’s Preseason Prop Bets

• Based on projections, the best bets to lead the league in receiving yards is Justin Jefferson(+775) and Cooper Kupp(+800).
• Receiving yardage over/unders appear low for the four projected league leaders.
• Both projections and over/unders have predicted a historically low league-leading yardarge.
• Of the top receivers based on yardage projections, Tyreek Hill appears to be the best bet to go over his total(82.5).
• Betting the DJ Moore under of 87.5 catches appears to be the best bet overall.

NEW YORK – The NFL’s Hall of Fame Game kicks off the preseason on Thursday night, meaning fantasy football draft season has begun.

Some of the largest differences between preseason player prop bets and projections via fantasy sites can be found at the receiver position.

Best Wide Receiver Bets Based On Fantasy Football Projections

After an offseason of Pro Bowl wide receivers like A.J. Brown, Davante Adams, and Tyreek Hill changing teams, fantasy football sites and online sportsbooks have not been able to align their projections for how the star wide receivers will fare on their new teams.

The lack of consensus between fantasy football and oddsmakers leads to some potentially profitable bets throughout the receiver position, but that specifically becomes apparent when ranking receivers by projected receiving yards at ESPN and comparing them to the NFL odds for each receiver to lead the league in reception yards.

In the comparison, each receiver’s projected receptions are included as well as their specific over-under for catches and yards.

Odds To Lead The League In Reception Yards

• Jefferson +775
• Kupp +800
• Chase +900
• Moore +4000
• Adams +1000

Key Points When Looking At The Top Receiving Yards Projections

• Receiving Yardage Tiers: Justin Jefferson and Cooper Kupp appear to be in a league of their own for receiving yards, with no other receiver projected to be within 90 yards. Ja’Marr Chase ranks third with 1258 projected yards, which is 92 yards more than fourth place DJ Moore. Moore’s projections are closer to 11th-ranked DK Metcalf than Chase. Based on the yardage projections, Jefferson and Kupp are the clear top-tier best bets, with Ja’Marr Chase occupying the second tier all to himself, and then the rest of the top-ranked receivers.
• Low Yardage Over/Unders: The top four receivers in receiving yards all are projected to go over their preseason over/unders by at least 44.5 yards. Of the top 10 receivers based on receiving yard projections, seven are projected to go over. Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and CeeDee Lamb are the three projected to go under.
• Historically Low Top Receiver: Justin Jefferson has both the highest projected receiving yardage total(1370) and the highest over/under(1325.5) by both ESPN and BetOnline. That would surely be considered a great season, but if the league leader failed to top either of those projections that would be a historically low leading number. The last league leader in receiving yards with less than Jefferson’s projected 1370 was Chad Johnson/Ochocinco back in 2006 with 1,369. There was one less game played per season back then as well. 1987 was the last time a receiving yards leader went under 1325.5 yards, which was done by J.T. Smith when there were 15 games.
• Reception Differences: Of the 10 receivers expected to lead the league in receiving yards, the player with the largest positive difference was Tyreek Hill who is projected to catch 88 passes but has an over-under of 82.5 The largest overall difference was DJ Moore, who is expected to go under his preseason catch total by 7.5 catches despite the fact that he is projected to go over his yardage total by 65.5 yards.

Brett Crown

Brett spends his time inhaling all things sports. With a passion for statistics and an in-depth understanding of the minor details of sport he loves to put his knowledge to the test. When he is not writing you can find him bowling, tossing the pigskin, or beaching it on the golf course.