Underdog Bet a Strong Option for Trey Lance Starts Prop Bet

• Online sportsbooks have given Trey Lance -170 odds to start more than 15.5 regular season games.
• The under has +145 odds and is the best bet based on injury risks surrounding quarterbacks, Lance’s lack of history of staying healthy, and his overall play style as a rushing quarterback.

SAN FRANCISCO – NFL sportsbooks are currently favoring Trey Lance to start at least 16 regular season games, despite his uneven performance in the preseason and all the injury risks that come with playing quarterback.

How Many Games Will Trey Lance Start This Season?

• Over 15.5 -170
• Under 15.5 +145

Betting On the Under for Trey Lance Starts

With online sportsbooks heavily favoring Lance starting at least 16 games, it is clear that there is an overall understanding of how Lance is likely to start nearly regardless of how he plays.

The San Francisco 49ers gave up three first-round draft picks for Lance, have stated that their time with Jimmy Garoppolo is done, and have given Lance one full season worth of practice before having to take on the starting quarterback gig full-time.

Betting on Trey Lance to hold on to the job is not an issue, because it is extremely unlikely he loses his job based on performance because of how much the staff has riding on him.

What may be an issue is just betting on him to stay healthy. Some of the key indicators that Lance may be no better than a 50/50 bet to stay healthy include:

• Last season exactly 50% of all Week 1 starting quarterbacks started at least 16 regular season games.
• Trey Lance has started 19 games combined at the collegiate and professional football levels. He played 16 games during his 2019 season at North Dakota State.
• Despite starting only two games in 2021, Lance ranked 18th in the NFL in quarterback rush yards. Of the 17 players ahead of him, only six started 16 or more games.

With his -170 NFL betting odds indicating that there is a better bet chance than not that Lance starts at least 16 games, it seems that betting against the promising second-year player to miss one start or less would be the smart bet, especially with +145 odds.

Brett Crown

Brett spends his time inhaling all things sports. With a passion for statistics and an in-depth understanding of the minor details of sport he loves to put his knowledge to the test. When he is not writing you can find him bowling, tossing the pigskin, or beaching it on the golf course.