UFC Fight Island Arbitrage Betting: Kattar vs. Holloway

• Max Holloway is a -155 favorite over Calvin Kattar.
• Kattar, however, is favored at -145 odds if the fight ends within five rounds.
• Holloway has +135 odds to win by points.

YAS ISLAND, Abu Dhabi - The UFC is back on Fight Island, and the card for UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar is a solid one.

The card is of course anchored by the matchup between Max Holloway and Calvin Kattar, and the two featherweight competitors will look to make it a night to remember.

Holloway and Kattar are both elite fighters in the division, with Holloway currently the number one contender for Alexander Volaknovski’s belt.

Kattar is ranked sixth in the division, so this is effectively a fight for Holloway to earn a title match.

Max Holloway vs. Calvin Kattar Odds

• Max Holloway -155
• Calvin Kattar +135

There are odds on a multitude of prop bets regarding this fight, from whether or not it will last a certain number of rounds to how it will end.

Method of Victory Odds

• Max Holloway by Points +135
• Calvin Kattar by Points +300
• Calvin Kattar by KO/TKO or DQ +400
• Max Holloway by KO/TKO or DQ +400
• Max Holloway by Submission +1200
• Calvin Kattar by Submission +1400
• Draw +6600

The two leading options for method of victory are Holloway by points and Kattar by points, suggesting that this fight might be one that will go to a decision.

This makes sense - both fighters have racked up a large portion of their wins by decision, with Holloway at 43% and Kattar at 41%. In addition, they’re a solid stylistic match for each other - neither of them are submission artists, and both of them are comfortable on their feet.

Kattar has an advantage in terms of arm reach by three inches, but a disadvantage in leg reach by two inches.

This could give him an advantage in landing strikes when the two men are stood up face to face.

Both of the fighters have equal odds to win by KO/TKO or DQ, at +400.

When comparing these odds to the odds for the fight itself, it seems clear that much of Holloway’s advantage comes from a perception that he is a superior stand-up fighter, and that he will win on the scorecards throughout the fight.

Neither of the fighters tends to win by submission, and they have equivalent odds to win by KO/TKO or DQ, so the only spot in which Holloway significantly edges Kattar on these odds is his chances to win via points.

This is driven home further by the following wager, which is a wager on who will win the fight inside the distance - meaning that if the fight goes to the scorecards, the wager is ruled No Action.

Holloway vs. Kattar - Win Inside Distance

• Calvin Kattar -145
• 80790 Max Holloway +115

These odds heavily imply that if the fight ends before the judge’s scorecards become a factor, Kattar will be the winner.

It seems as though the online sportsbooks believe that Holloway doesn’t have the knockout power necessary to win the fight outright, but can out-fight Kattar on his feet en route to a decision win.

One interesting combination wager that could be solid is taking Kattar on the moneyline at +135 and Holloway to win by points at +135.

This lets you hedge against a Kattar loss by fitting Holloway’s most likely method of victory within the margin of your wager.

Effectively, if either of these outcomes occur, someone who bet this would come out about 18% ahead on the wager.

UFC betting fans have a lot to look forward to with this matchup, and even more to look forward to on the odds boards.