- Christian McCaffrey shouldn’t be the No. 1 pick in fantasy drafts this year as he's overrated.
- Austin Ekeler could be a league-winning running back in the 2021-2022 season.
- A couple of second-year running backs could struggle to earn their coach’s trust for playing time this year.
LAS VEGAS – Fantasy Football season is, for some people, the best part of the NFL season. The fantasy draft is the most important part of the pastime. Running backs are a key to winning seasons but here are three running backs that players should target and avoid for this year's draft.
Overrated Running Backs
Every season sees unanimous first-round draft selections that end up having a bust of a season. It can happen for a variety of reasons. These are the running backs that could fall into the trap of being too highly ranked on draft boards for the 2021-2022 NFL season.
Christian McCaffrey (ADP – 1.0, RB1)
Two things can be true at once, Christian McCaffrey can be a good fantasy option and he can also be overrated. The very definition of being overrated is being rated too highly. And McCaffrey is just that. Online sportsbooks are projecting CMC to have a bounce-back year, but there are no guarantees.
Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards Totals
- OVER 1200.5 EVEN
- UNDER 1200.5 -130
The 2020 season was a wake-up call for Matt Rhule that he needs McCaffrey healthy to be successful. This could be the reason why the team drafted Chuba Hubbard to be the backup RB. McCaffrey is obviously a great option for a fantasy team, but there’s fair concern he might not ever return to his 2019 form.
J.K. Dobbins (ADP – 25.0, RB15)
J.K. Dobbins simply has too much competition for carries on the Baltimore Ravens offense. Between Gus Edwards who just penned a new contract and Lamar Jackson, who has a season total of 945.5 rushing yards. There are only so many carries to go around and at Dobbins’ ADP, he’s not worth the risk.
J.K. Dobbins Rushing Yards Totals
- OVER 1050.5 -120
- UNDER 1050.5 -110
With multiple rushing options on the roster, NFL betting sites may be putting too much value on Dobbins’ name.
D’Andre Swift (ADP 31.0 – RB17)
D’Andre Swift may be losing his starting job in Detroit. Antony Lynn has called newly-signed back Jamaal Williams an “A” back meaning he could be getting a bigger workload than Swift himself.
D’Andre Swift Rushing Yard Totals
- OVER 900.5 -110
- UNDER 900.5 -120
Even if Swift is the lead back, he’s on a team that’s expected to be one of the worst in the NFL and will likely be trialing in games which may force the Lions to abandon the rushing game.
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Underrated Running Back Options
For every overrated running back, there’s an underrated counterpart.
Austin Ekeler (ADP 16.3 – RB10)
If Austin Ekeler is able to stay healthy, he could be in a position to have an incredible season. He tallied 108 targets in 2019 and was on pace for another 100+ target season in 2020, but injuries stopped him. He averaged 18.1 fantasy points per game in 2020, excluding the game in which he was injured in the first quarter.
With an extremely high floor and ceiling, Ekeler is in line to be a top-five RB this season.
Najee Harris (ADP 17.0 – RB11)
There are not many true workhorse running backs remaining in the NFL as many teams have elected to go with the RB by a committee approach. The Pittsburgh Steelers expect Najee Harris to be a three-down back and based on that principle alone, he is worth taking a bit earlier than his ADP.
Najee Harris Rushing Yards Total
- OVER 990.5 -115
- UNDER 990.5 -115
Antonio Gibson (ADP 17.7 – RB12)
Antonio Gibson is a part of an offense that remains largely unchanged from the previous season aside from a better quarterback, which will help him see fewer stacked boxes. Sports betting sites give Gibson a rushing total that puts him among the league’s best.
Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards Total
- OVER 1025.5 -115
- UNDER 1025.5 -115
His total is on par with Aaron Jones and Ezekiel Elliot and is higher than Joe Mixon, Josh Jacobs, Miles Sanders, and David Montgomery.
Nick got involved with the world of sports at a young age and never turned his back on it. He graduated from Penn State University with a degree in Broadcast/Journalism. In his free time, you can catch him at the bottom of the leaderboards on any video game he’s playing.
