- Caleb Love scored 28 points to help UNC beat Duke and advance to the Championship Game.
- Love has -145 odds to score more than 17.5 points against the Kansas Jayhawks.
- He has -105 odds to rack up more than 3.5 assists in the game.
NEW ORLEANS - Caleb Love of the University Of North Carolina Tar Heels was the driving force behind their historic upset of the Duke Blue Devils in Coach K’s last game. Love scored 28 points to go along with four rebounds and an assist as UNC bounced their hated rival for what would be the last time in Coach K’s storied career.
Love is very much a pure scorer - as his props demonstrate. He’s expected to score big in the final game, where his Tar Heels will face off against the Kansas Jayhawks on Monday.
Total Points - Caleb Love (North Carolina) Odds
- Over 17.5 -145
- Under 17.5 +105
Love is averaging significantly under 17.5 points for the season - including the tournament, he’s putting up 16 points per game on the dot. In the tournament, however, he’s gone off three times, scoring 30 points against UCLA, 23 points against Marquette, and 28 against Duke.
Interspersed with those explosions, however, were a five point dud against Baylor and a 14 point showing against St. Peters.
Love has -145 odds to go over 17.5 points in what is surely the game of his life, even though that is significantly above his average scoring output.
It seems possible that the online sportsbooks are caught up in the hype, or that Love himself could outperform his averages in such an important game.
Another potentially relevant aspect of analyzing a prop like this is pace. The Jayhawks average 71.4 possessions per game, while the Tar Heels average 72.5.
Their pace is not so far off that it could mess with counting stats, but it is worth considering whether or not Kansas will want to - or be able to - slow the game down.
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Total Assists - Caleb Love (North Carolina) Odds
- Over 3.5 -105
- Under 3.5 -135
Love is not an assist machine - he’s very clearly specialized as a scorer in his role with UNC.
For the season, he’s averaging 3.6 assists, just above the 3.5 that he is projected to hit today. However, unfortunately for bettors, it’s not possible to put up half an assist in a real game.
Love has played 38 games this year. In 22 of them, he racked up four or more assists, and in the remaining 16, he put up three or less.
However, the online sportsbooks believe that Love is likely to put up less than 3.5 assists in this game, as can be seen from the way the line is shaded.
Total Points And Assists - Caleb Love (North Carolina) Odds
- Over 21.5 -130
- Under 21.5 -110
Notably, Love is favored to go over in the combination of points and assists category. However, it should be noted that online sportsbooks added an extra hook to this - 17.5 + 3.5 = 21.0, not 21.5.
Perhaps this is their way of accounting for the possibility of a scoring bonanza - after all, Love’s 28 points against Duke would have sealed this bet without even looking at assists.
Still, March Madness betting fans should always take note when a sportsbook adds a hook like this to a wager.
Maxwell joined the USAOnlineSportsbooks team in 2019. He focuses on creating sports betting content that informs and educates. He focuses on the NBA, the NFL, College Football and Basketball, and whatever else comes across his desk.
