- Shane Bieber’s strikeout total of Over 259 odds set at -450.
- Alternate odds of O/U 372 strikeouts listed as Over (+425) and Under (-700).
CLEVELAND, Ohio – The Cleveland Indians’ ace, Shane Bieber, is the reigning American league Cy Young winner and has made a strong start to the 2021 campaign as well.
One year removed from placing fourth in the MVP voting, Bieber has quickly become one of the youngest stars in baseball.
Some doubters may point to the shortened season in 2020 as the key to Bieber’s success, but early indications in 2021 show that 26-year-old has no plans of slowing down.
Shane Bieber Strikeout Odds
- O/U 259 Strikeouts – Over (-450) / Under (+300)
- O/U 372 Strikeouts – Over (+425) / Under (-700)
- O/U 383 Strikeouts – Over (+450) / Under (-775)
How Dominant Will Bieber Need to Be?
In order to project whether Bieber will hit these numbers, you need to find out what he will have to do on a nightly basis. Thinking of ace pitchers in recent memory, Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw come to mind.
Kershaw had 33 starts in 2011, 2012, 2013 as well as in 2015. He also had 32 starts in 2010 and 31 in 2009. Verlander, aside from his rookie campaign and * “injury” in the 2015 season has averaged 33.1 starts across 14 seasons. For the sake of these projections, we’ll project Bieber to have 33 starts in the 2021 season.
To reach 259 strikeouts, Bieber’s total during his 2019 all-star season, Bieber would need to average 7.8 strikeouts per his projected 33 outings. He has four starts this season under his belt and has recorded 48 strikeouts. This drops his strikeouts per game needed to eclipse 259 down to 7.2 for the remainder of the season.
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In order to reach 372 strikeouts and for bettors to cash out on Bovada’s odds of +425, Bieber would need to average 11.2 strikeouts per start. To reach the final number of 383 strikeouts and match Nolan Ryan’s single-season record, Bieber needs an average of 11.6 strikeouts per game.
Is It Possible?
Bieber getting to all of these numbers is possible, however there is very little room for an off night. Getting to 34, 35 or even 36 starts would greatly increase his chances of reaching these milestones, but almost any injury than forces him to miss more than a game or two would kill his chances.
If Bieber can stay healthy, the biggest challenge will be to log enough innings to make these numbers obtainable. In his Cy Young season last year, Bieber averaged 14.2 K/9, or 1.58 strikeouts per inning. If you take that number and put it to his 2019 season in which he logged 214.1 innings over 34 appearances, Bieber still falls short with only 338.2 strikeouts.
Between the last two seasons, Bieber has averaged about 6.4 innings per appearance. In comparison, Randy Johnson’s 2001 season in which he recorded 372 strikeouts, Johnson actually had a lower K/9 than what Bieber had last year, but was on average taking his starts into the eighth inning.
There’s a lot that could go wrong, but still a fighting chance for Bieber to etch his name alongside some of the greats. It’s an unlikely feat to match, but riskier MLB bettors have an opportunity to bank a +425 or +450 bet.
Nick got involved with the world of sports at a young age and never turned his back on it. He graduated from Penn State University with a degree in Broadcast/Journalism. In his free time, you can catch him at the bottom of the leaderboards on any video game he’s playing.
