Raiders A Double-Digit Home Dog: First Time Since 2018

• The Las Vegas Raiders will be without Derek Carr as the quarterback after he was benched.
• Carr’s absence makes looking at Raiders trends difficult.
• His replacement is Jarrett Stidham, and the Raiders are double-digit underdogs for the first time since 2018.

LAS VEGAS - The Las Vegas Raiders, fresh off the benching of QB Derek Carr – and his departure from the team in the wake of it – are a double-digit home underdog for the first time since 2018 against the San Francisco 49ers.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Las Vegas Raiders Spread Odds

• San Francisco 49ers -10.0 (-105)
• Las Vegas Raiders +10.0 (+115)

Note that there is a bit of shading towards the Raiders on these odds – by the time the game is played, the Raiders may only be 9.5-point underdogs – but for now, they’re ten-point dogs.

The Raiders are 7-8 against the spread this season, as the online sportsbooks seem to have nailed how good they are supposed to be.

The 49ers, their opponents, are significantly above expectations this season, with a 10-5 ATS record.

The line for this game opened at Raiders +5.5, but has since ballooned to the current double-digit difference.

The 49ers are spread killers, straight up. They have a 20-7 record against the spread in their last 27 games, they have a 4-1 record against the spread in their last five Week 17 games, and a 4-1 record against the spread in their last five road games.

In addition, the Niners have covered the spread in their last five games following a spread cover – this is a fancy way of saying they’re on a six-game spread cover streak.

In their last six games against teams with losing records, the Niners have only failed to cover the spread one time.

The Raiders, contrary to what one might expect, are actually quite solid against the spread when playing at home.

They have covered the spread in four of their last five home games, and in their last five games against teams with winning records.

However, all Raiders trends come with a caveat in this game – Derek Carr will not play as the quarterback for the Raiders.

Carr was benched by head coach Josh McDaniels, and subsequently took a leave of absence from the team, with permission – he won’t even be at the game.

Carr was the quarterback for the last nine years of Raiders football, and all of these trends are influenced by him.

Jarrett Stidham will take his place under center. He’s only ever thrown a pass in one NFL game, during garbage time of the Raiders’ loss to the New Orleans Saints earlier this year.

Stidham is the biggest X-factor in this game. Remember, the 49ers are spread killers mostly because the NFL sportsbooks underestimated Brock Purdy, their third-string quarterback who has led them on a great winning streak.

Stidham could be the Brock Purdy of the Raiders. The online sportsbooks don’t think that’s likely, but that doesn’t mean it’s impossible.