- Headlines noted that Joe Biden is taking the lead over Donald Trump in many political polls across the US.
- The betting odds on the 2024 election still favor Trump, though Joe Biden’s election odds are not far behind.
NEW YORK - Joe Biden now leads Donald Trump in 10 polls per MSN headlines this morning, but what do the political betting odds say?
Recent Presidential Polls
| Poll | Biden Support (%) | Trump Support (%) |
|---|---|---|
| FAU and Mainstreet | 47 | 45 |
| RMG Research | 44 | 43 |
| Data for Progress | 47 | 46 |
| Ipsos | 41 | 37 |
| Quinnipiac | 48 | 45 |
| Marquette | 45 | 44 |
| Marist College | 50 | 48 |
| I&I/TIPP | 43 | 40 |
| Noble Predictive | 44 | 43 |
| Progress Action Fund | 46 | 45 |
*Poll data pulled from MSN
At time of writing, Donald Trump's odds to be elected president sit favored at +105.
The odds for Joe Biden to be reelected aren’t far behind at +120.
Indicating a close race between the two, the next group of candidates are seen as long shots.
Odds To Become President
- Michelle Obama +2500
- Robert Kennedy Jr. +3000
- Gavin Newsom +4500
- Kamala Harris +7000
Only seven months exist between now and the election, but both online sportsbooks and political polls will be on top of things between then.
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Odds are often a better indicator of political success, as polls are merely a grouping of a small cohort, while odds undergo data and analytics.
In fact, the nine polls listed above totaled just over 12,000 people - excluding the Marquette Law School poll - failing to truly represent the nation's outlook, with one person representing roughly 27,500 people.
While US election betting odds can be influenced by large bets, media coverage, and personal opinion, it's less likely to be wrong in the long run.
But, Biden was a +1500 underdog on election night in 2020, proving that anything can happen, and nobody really knows what’s going on.
Michael spends most of his time betting on over/unders and analyzing algorithms in attempts to beat the book. His focus on statistics comes from an early understanding of mathematics as well as knowledge of opportunity costs. Michael enjoys playing basketball and reading about the NBA whenever he has the free time. When he is not writing, he can be found in Mississippi hitting the sportsbooks and enjoying a margarita… on the rocks, no salt.
