- Florida is favored by one point, the closest odds in the national championship since 2019
- Houston enters the game with an 18-game win streak, the longest in the country
SAN ANTONIO – The 2025 National Championship features two teams with identical 35-4 records in the Florida Gators and Houston Cougars. Florida beat the top overall seed in Auburn to advance to the title game, while Houston beat Duke, who had been the betting favorite to win the title since the start of the tournament.
Florida Gators vs Houston Cougars Game Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | -1.0 (-105) | -115 | O 141.0 (-110) |
| Houston | +1.0 (-115) | -105 | U 141.0 (-110) |
Online sportsbooks give the Gators a slight edge over Houston, listing them as 1-point favorites.
Both teams enter the game with double-digit win streaks, Florida sitting at 11 straight wins while Houston is riding an 18-game win streak, the longest active win streak in the country.
With the odds for the game being essentially even, here’s why the Houston Cougars will be this year’s national champions.
Extra Possessions
| Team | TO Rate | Opp TO Rate | Rebound Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 15.6% | 16.7% | 55.7% |
| Houston | 14.2% | 20.9% | 54.0% |
It is easy to get carried away with flashy stats like points and field goal percentage, but college basketball games are decided in the trenches, by winning the turnover and rebounding battles. Houston plays at the fifth slowest pace in the country and boasts the most efficient defense in all of college basketball according to KenPom. They are able to control the tempo against just about any team.
Florida and Houston both narrowly lost the turnover battle in their Final Four matchups, but dominated on the glass, with Florida out-rebounding Auburn 39-30 and Houston beating Duke on the boards 42-31.
However, the Gators coughed up 16 turnovers against Auburn, with 11 of them coming from Auburn steals, despite Auburn ranking just 154th in steals per game. Houston ranks 55th in steals per game, despite their slow pace of play and low number of possessions.
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Houston is also known to take care of the ball, losing just nine turnovers against Duke and posting a 14.2% turnover rate for the season according to barttrovik.com, good for 19th in the country.
Florida is not necessarily a turnover machine, ranking 67th in the country in turnover rate, but they are not nearly the defensive buzzsaw that Houston is, with a 20.9% opponent turnover rate. That is good for 23rd in the nation. Florida is just 197th in opponent turnover rate, meaning chances are that Houston will win the turnover battle, thus resulting in extra possessions.
The two are much closer on the glass than in terms of turnovers, with Florida ranking 7th in the country in rebound rate against Houston who ranks 18th. It will be an all-out war on the boards, with both teams ranking inside the top ten in offensive rebounding rate as well.
The final stat that puts Houston over the top is their three-point efficiency. Despite ranking just 285th in three-point rate, they are first in the country in three-point percentage, something Auburn failed to do effectively against Florida in the Final Four, going just 7-25 from deep.
If Houston can continue their dominance on the defensive end, keep the rebounding battle close, and knock down threes at their normal rate, we will likely see the Cougars cut down the nets for their first ever NCAA title.
Roll with the Cougars to win the game outright at March Madness sportsbooks online.
Drew is currently a student at Florida State University majoring in Communication / Media Studies. He enjoys playing, watching, reading, and writing about sports. If you need to know anything about football or basketball, Drew’s your guy.
