- Joe Biden is a -575 favorite to win Pennsylvania.
- Donald Trump is a +425 underdog to win the state.
- Biden has -700 odds to win the overall election, which he can do without PA.
PHILADELPHIA - Pennsylvania looks pretty likely to be the most important state on the board in the current electoral cycle.
PA has 20 electoral votes up for grabs, and at the moment, there are more than 400,000 ballots remaining in the state, with Donald Trump up by 142,000 votes.
Biden needs to win the remaining 400,000+ votes by a bit over 70%. There are two things to consider here:
Those votes appear to be mostly from Philadelphia.
Those votes appear to be mostly mail-in votes.
Both of these factors are good news for the Biden campaign and put Pennsylvania well within reach.
Mail in votes trended for Biden, as did votes in Pennsylvania. The question is going to be whether or not he hits the margins needed to take the lead.
Moreover, there are ballots remaining in the state that will not even be counted until Friday, due to some arcane legalities.
The quick and dirty scenario is this. For the last 12 hours, it’s more or less looked like Biden is on track to win PA.
Basically, what’s happening here is that it’s easier to count rural ballots than it is city ballots, purely on volume.
More people vote in cities, so it takes longer to count them. Similarly, more people voted by mail this year, and Pennsylvania is not allowed to start counting mail ballots until after election day.
Both mail vote and city vote trend Democratic, which is why Biden’s numbers are going up.
The question is how much they trend towards the Democrats. Biden needs to win them by a pretty big margin, and if he doesn’t hit that margin, he won’t win the state.
If the current trends hold up, it is likely that he will overtake Trump in PA by the end of the day.
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Given that, the election odds to win Pennsylvania should not come as a surprise.
Pennsylvania (PA) Odds
- Democratic Candidate -575
- Republican Candidate +360
If Biden overtakes Trump in PA, it is extremely likely that he will end up winning the state, and that the election will be called.
PA going for Biden ends the election - he would be well over 270 electoral votes, even if he loses NV, AZ, and GA.
It’s worth noting that Biden has other paths to 270 - he can win NV and AZ and lose PA and GA, or he can win AZ and GA, and lose PA and NV.
With all of that said, it’s not a surprise to see Biden as a -700 favorite to win the election at this point.
US Presidential Election 2020 - Odds To Win
- Joe Biden -700
- Donald Trump +425
So, what does a Trump victory look like? It probably looks like winning PA and GA and either AZ or NV.
He’s got a couple outs. The election is far from over. Pennsylvania going for Biden, however, would end it.
PA is clearly the most important state on the board. If Trump loses it, it’s over.
That said, we might not know what is happening in the state for a bit. There are currently appeals ongoing in various cases involving the PA count.
It might be a while before anyone who bet on Pennsylvania sees a payout from the online sportsbooks.
Maxwell joined the USAOnlineSportsbooks team in 2019. He focuses on creating sports betting content that informs and educates. He focuses on the NBA, the NFL, College Football and Basketball, and whatever else comes across his desk.
