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March Madness

March Madness Magic Numbers: How To Use Historic Betting Trends

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  • The NCAA Tournament is scheduled to start on Thursday
  • Since 2003, teams with +17 point spreads have covered more than 54% of the time.

LAS VEGAS - The NCAA Tournament is coming up, and March Madness brings with it a plethora of different ways to wager.

With new sports bettors entering the market each March Madness, there are going to be a large number of articles about the latest can’t-miss trend. We took a look at the data and came up with some legitimately intriguing trends, but instead of calling them can’t miss, they’ll be discussed as they are: potentially intriguing and useful data points.

Taking Moneylines When Favored By Five Points

Since 2003, there are fairly significant trends in terms of how games tend to go when one team is favored by 5 or 5.5 points.

In that time period, teams favored by five points are 1899-908 straight up, (67.7%) but almost even on the spread (50.5%).

At first glance, this trend seems like a cut and dry trend, telling bettors to take the moneyline when teams are favored by five points.

As an example, let’s look at the matchup between the Georgetown Hoyas and the Colorado Buffaloes, which is a 12-5 matchup.

Georgetown vs. Colorado Spread

  • Georgetown +5.0 (-105)
  • Colorado -5.0 (-115)

 

Georgetown vs. Colorado Moneyline

  • Georgetown +175
  • Colorado -210

Given what the trends say about teams who are favored by five points winning 67.7% of their games on the moneyline, what can be learned about this matchup. Incredibly, -210 odds works out to an implied 67.7 % chance of winning, which is the exact chance this statistic suggests that Colorado would have.

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So what does this trend actually tell us? It tells us that the online sportsbooks are really good at setting lines and spreads, and matching them to reality.

Underdog Numbers To Look Out For

There are some unique numbers on spreads that have produced underdog victories in the past, over relatively large sample sizes.

  • Teams with a +12 spread have a 642-542-60 ATS record, and ATS win rate of 54.2%.
  • Teams with a +15.5 spread have a 356-307 ATS record, giving them a spread win rate of 53.7%.
  • Teams with a +17 spread have a record of 274-227-25 ATS, which gives them a spread win rate of 54.7%.
  • Teams with a +22 spread have a record of 119-90-11 ATS, which puts them at a whopping spread win rate of 56.9%.

In the first round of the tournament, one matchup fits under these criteria, and it’s the 2-15 matchup between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Iona Gaels.

Alabama vs. Iona Spread

  • Alabama -17.0 (-105)
  • Iona +17.0 (-115)

This matchup features an Iona team that has a +17.0 spread, and given that +17.0 teams have a 54.7% win rate against the spread in March Madness since 2003, they could be a solid wager on the spread.

Just make sure to stay away from the moneyline. Teams that are 17 point underdogs have a record of 28-498 straight up since 2003.

March Madness betting fans can take advantage of these trends to get a slight edge on the house, but it’s important to make sure to do due diligence when investigating trends.