- The Texas Tech Red Raiders face off against the Arkansas Razorbacks in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament.
- Texas Tech is a mild favorite, with -115 odds to win the game.
- On the spread, Texas Tech is favored by only one point.
INDIANAPOLIS - The First Round of the NCAA Tournament has already generated some incredibly interesting Second Round matchups.
Perhaps the most intriguing of them on Sunday is the matchup between the Texas Tech Red Raiders and the Arkansas Razorbacks.
This is a six seed in Texas Tech matching up against a three seed in the form of Arkansas, and some underlying numbers suggest that this matchup could be one of the most intriguing - and bracket busting - matchups of the day.
The matchup itself seems close on its face - a six seed is not incredibly far removed from a three seed - but in terms of odds, it’s closer than one might think.
Texas Tech vs. Arkansas Moneyline
- Texas Tech -115
- Arkansas -105
The first aspect of the line that might stand out to a newer March Madness betting fan is that Texas Tech, the lower ranked team, is the favorite. There are plenty of underlying statistics that support this outcome, however.
For example, ESPN’s BPI (Basketball Power Index) suggests that Texas Tech is a 52% favorite to win this matchup.
The Red Raiders have an absolutely gargantuan point differential this season, scoring 72.8 points per game while only allowing 53.0.
The Big 12 is a ridiculously stacked conference, with teams like Baylor, Kansas, West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma all occupying not just tournament slots, but top eight seeds.
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Texas Tech, as a team that competed against all of these teams during the regular season, could perhaps be underrated in terms of their record, which was attained against tougher competition than most of college basketball.
While the Red Raiders do have an unspectacular 18-10 record, which is far behind Arkansas’ 23-6 record, the competition level makes it clear that they are a genuinely good team.
Texas Tech vs. Arkansas Spread
- Texas Tech -1.0 (-110)
- Arkansas +1.0 (-110)
The online sportsbooks have set the spread for this matchup nearly as low as possible without being a pick ‘em, and Texas Tech finds themselves favored by one point.
Intriguingly, they have struggled against the spread this season, with a record of 11-17 ATS, almost the inverse of their straight up record. Arkansas, meanwhile, has been a comfortable cover machine, with an ATS record of 18-9-1 over the course of the season.
There’s some question as to whether or not those stats are particularly relevant in the context of the spread being this close to the moneyline.
The bottom line in this matchup is that it could go either way, and not just because the odds are close, but because underlying trends are pointing in different directions.
This is one of the matchups that make March Madness what it is, and it should be a spectacular showdown between elite competition.
Maxwell joined the USAOnlineSportsbooks team in 2019. He focuses on creating sports betting content that informs and educates. He focuses on the NBA, the NFL, College Football and Basketball, and whatever else comes across his desk.
