Line Shopping On UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori Odds

• Marvin Vettori, ranked well below Jack Hermansson, is favored to win the fight at around -140 odds.
• The fight has +160 odds to go the distance and be judged by the scorecards.
• When a decision is removed from the equation, Hermansson’s odds increase significantly.

LAS VEGAS - Marvin Vettori is set to face off against Jack Hermansson in what looks to be a closely contested fight.

Vettori and Hermansson will be the headlining fight of this Saturday’s UFC Fight Night card that bears their names. Hermansson enters this fight ranked fourth in the UFC’s Middleweight division, while Vettori is ranked 13th.

Don’t let the rankings fool you, however - the odds seem to suggest that The Italian Dream has a solid chance of taking down The Joker.

Line Shopping For Winner

There are plenty of UFC betting sites with odds for this fight, but let’s start with Bovada’s fight odds:

At Bovada, Vettori is actually favored - the thirteenth ranked fighter is notably favored over the fourth-ranked fighter. This trend holds true at the other major online sportsbooks as well.

Of the three books, the one that has the best odds on both fighters, interestingly, is BetOnline.

Vettori bettors will want to use BetOnline as they will offer him to win at -133 odds, the best deal on the market. Meanwhile, Hermansson bettors will also want to take their business to BetOnline, as they can get him at +113.

Line Shopping On Decision

These two wagers are also related and are used here to make the point that even comparing similar but not identical wagers can be helpful.

The sportsbooks break the wagers up differently, but both of them have the odds of the fight going to a decision set at +160.

Bonus Bet

One other advantage of shopping lines is that one can find wagers that are not exactly within the norm.

For example, consider the following wager, found at BetOnline.

This wager is effectively a modification of the normal wager. Something similar is often done in soccer betting, where draws are common.

The fact is, it is fairly likely that this match ends in a decision - not favored, but likely enough to perhaps warrant a wager like this.

Something that is interesting to note is that the removal of a decision from the equation seems to move the fight in favor of the underdog, Hermansson.

While BetOnline has him at +113 on the normal moneyline, without a decision on the table, he goes to -105.

So, why is this? After all, it’s not like Vettori is a master at winning decision victories - only 27% of his wins have come by the judges’ scorecards.

One can only make guesses, but it seems possible that the sportsbooks regard Vettori’s grappling as a threat to set the tone for the match.

If Vettori is able to overpower Hermansson on the ground, and keep him there, that could increase his odds of a decision victory.

Conversely, that would lower his odds of a finish, assuming his plan is to win by points.

This is only a theory, and there are many possible explanations for something like this happening, from more movement happening on the straight-up moneyline to other variations in fighting style being taken into account.

Overall, however, MMA bettors would be wise to pay attention to discrepancies at online sportsbooks like this, and use them to inform the wagers they place.