- The 2024 NBA Draft featured many longshot bets that hit in reference to players' exact draft position.
- Could arbitrage betting every pick up until profit pay out in the end or was it too random to try?
BROOKLYN - Before Wednesday's first round of the NBA Draft, everyone knew Zaccharie Risacher was the expected number 1 pick (-450 odds). Likewise, the number 2, 3, and 4 drafted, Alexandre Sarr, Reed Sheppard, and Stephon Castle, were favored in their position at -1200, -250, and -200 odds, respectively.
But the other 26 players drafted held underdog odds at NBA sportsbooks online that make us wonder, is betting the NBA Draft the best way to hit a longshot?
Some positions were rather locked in, with players being the top selection holding odds around +500 or less. However, half of the picks saw online sports betting odds of +1000 or longer. In some cases, these players were the third or fourth option, offering a real chance to hit a game-changer.
NBA Player's Exact Draft Pick Odds
| Pick | Player | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st Overall Pick | Zaccharie Risacher | JL Bourg | -450 |
| 2nd Overall Pick | Alexandre Sarr | Perth Wildcats | -1200 |
| 3rd Overall Pick | Reed Sheppard | Kentucky | -250 |
| 4th Overall Pick | Stephon Castle | Connecticut | -200 |
| 5th Overall Pick | Ron Holland | G League | +1800 |
| 6th Overall Pick | Tidjane Salaun | Cholet | +300 |
| 7th Overall Pick | Donovan Clingan | Connecticut | +330 |
| 8th Overall Pick | Rob Dillingham | Kentucky | +900 |
| 9th Overall Pick | Zach Edey | Purdue | +500 |
| 10th Overall Pick | Cody Williams | Colorado | +750 |
| 11th Overall Pick | Matas Buzelis | G League | +1500 |
| 12th Overall Pick | Nikola Topic | KK Crvena Zvezda | +900 |
| 13th Overall Pick | Devin Carter | Providence | +1100 |
| 14th Overall Pick | Carlton Carrington | Pittsburgh | +1600 |
| 15th Overall Pick | Kel'el Ware | Baylor | +800 |
| 16th Overall Pick | Jared McCain | Duke | +750 |
| 17th Overall Pick | Dalton Knecht | Tennessee | +2800 |
| 18th Overall Pick | Tristan De Silva | Colorado | +1400 |
| 19th Overall Pick | Ja'Kobe Walter | Baylor | +1100 |
| 20th Overall Pick | Jaylon Tyson | California | +1200 |
| 21st Overall Pick | Yves Missi | Baylor | +225 |
| 22nd Overall Pick | DaRon Holmes | Dayton | +2000 |
| 23rd Overall Pick | AJ Johnson | Illawarra | OFF THE BOARD |
| 24th Overall Pick | Kyshawn George | Miami | +1200 |
| 25th Overall Pick | Pacome Dadiet | Ratiopharm Ulm | +1600 |
| 26th Overall Pick | Dillon Jones | Weber State | +3300 |
| 27th Overall Pick | Terrence Shannon Jr. | Illinois | +1200 |
| 28th Overall Pick | Ryan Dunn | Virginia | +1800 |
| 29th Overall Pick | Isaiah Collier | USC | +4000 |
| 30th Overall Pick | Baylor Scheierman | Creighton | +500 |
While guessing these bets would be a challenge, one wonders how someone would do if they bet one less than the number of players listed up to the favorite. In other words, if a player is favored at +600, one could bet five players and still come out on top.
Take this example with the Toronto Raptors' pick at spot 19.
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19th Overall Pick Odds
- Zach Edey (Purdue) +650
- Kel'el Ware (Baylor) +900
- Isaiah Collier (USC) +1000
- Kyshawn George (Miami) +1000
- Tristan De Silva (Colorado) +1000
- Ja'Kobe Walter (Baylor) +1100
With Zach Edey favored in the position, bettors were given five other choices to bet before betting on Zach Edey became a detriment (assuming even bets across the board). In every scenario, an NBA betting follower would come out ahead.
Potential Payouts
- Zach Edey: 1.5x
- Kel'el Ware: 4x
- Isaiah Collier: 5x
- Kyshawn George: 5x
- Tristan De Silva: 5x
- Ja'Kobe Walter: 6x
With Ja'Kobe Walter being the selection, bettors would have profited six times their risk, cashing +1100 odds while losing 5 units in the process.
But is this possible to do across the board? If we followed the same process for every underdog pick, the NBA Draft betting payouts would have totaled -37.95 units for Day 1.
Conclusion: Betting the NBA Draft is a great opportunity to hit a longshot bet. However, selecting the most favored for every pick would have resulted in a loss of almost 40 units on the day! Because so many real money sports betting picks had the favorite from +500 to +650, a loss of four or five units per play was common.
Michael spends most of his time betting on over/unders and analyzing algorithms in attempts to beat the book. His focus on statistics comes from an early understanding of mathematics as well as knowledge of opportunity costs. Michael enjoys playing basketball and reading about the NBA whenever he has the free time. When he is not writing, he can be found in Mississippi hitting the sportsbooks and enjoying a margarita… on the rocks, no salt.
