How COVID-19 Could Affect March Madness Betting

• The NCAA Tournament is set to start on March 18, 2021.
• Multiple teams have had to drop out of conference tournaments due to positive COVID-19 testing.
• These positive tests so close to the Big Dance could put the NCAA Tournament at risk.

INDIANAPOLIS - COVID-19 has had an undeniably major effect on sports betting and sports bettors all across the world.

Now, with the NCAA Tournament approaching, the conference tournaments could be putting the Big Dance in jeopardy.

Seeding

The Duke Blue Devils, Virginia Cavaliers, and Kansas Jayhawks all had to drop out of their respective conference tournaments in recent days due to positive COVID-19 tests.

This will undoubtedly affect seeding in the NCAA Tournament, and could even prevent some of these teams from making it.

Duke was already fairly unlikely to make the tournament after a disappointing season, but Virginia and Kansas were in contention, and missing the conference tournaments could keep them out of the Big Dance altogether, or drop them in terms of seeding.

That’s not even the worst potential aspect of this situation.

Should no further COVID-19 tests be positive, this can be regarded as something of a blip, but in the context of the planned Indiana bubble for the tournament, it could have much larger effects.

Compromising The Bubble

Per the FDA, the COVID-19 incubation period ranges from as short as two days to as long as 14 days, depending on circumstances.

When the NBA opened their bubble in Florida, they started it with a quarantine period. The teams arrived in the bubble on July 7, 2020, and games didn’t start until July 30, 2020.

This was to ensure the safety of everyone involved - someone could, in theory, arrive at the bubble with the virus, and have it not be picked up by tests until the incubation period was over.

By having a quarantine time, they made sure that this situation did not happen.

The NCAA tournament will not have this luxury.

The tournament starts on March 18. The last conference tournaments conclude on March 14, Selection Sunday.

That’s a four-day quarantine period, well within the potential incubation time of COVID-19. This puts the concept of the bubble at risk.

What happens if a team has a positive COVID-19 test just before their game in the Sweet 16?

It’s a very real risk without a long enough pre-bubble quarantine period, and the conference tournaments have ensured that such a period will not exist.

Seeding, Pt. 2

Another, more minor way in which COVID-19 has affected the season is that it has caused teams to end up playing uneven amounts of games.

Similarly, certain games getting canceled (Gonzaga vs. Baylor comes to mind) have affected relative perceptions of teams.

If Gonzaga had lost to Baylor, what does that change in terms of seeding? What about vice versa? We’ll never know, but it could have mattered.

With so many games canceled, it’s hard to know what the aggregate effects of the canceled games were on seeding in the NCAA Tournament, but it’s undeniable that there were effects.

What Does This Mean For Bettors?

For college basketball betting fans, this means that there’s more uncertainty about this March Madness than there has been in some time.

Many bettors are simply grateful that the tournament is happening at all, and after 2020’s edition was canceled, this is an understandable position to hold.

In terms of potential advantages, there could be teams like Virginia and Kansas that get punished for missing their conference tournaments and end up seeded lower than they should be.

This will definitely affect bracketology for 2021’s March Madness tournament, and could also affect the odds, as there are plenty of casual bettors who might not understand the intricacies of the seeding that will be wagering in March Madness.

There’s a lot to keep apprised of when it comes to the effects of COVID-19 on March Madness betting, and we wish all the people involved in the tournament the best of health!