Head-to-Head Quarterback Pass Attempts Prop for SB LVII

• Head-to-Head props for Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes will compare each QB’s passing stats at the end of the game, with Mahomes being favored for almost all of them.
• Jalen Hurts’ spread of +7.5 pass attempts has -115 odds.
• The combination of Mahomes’ big throw ability, an attackable Eagles run defense, and the clock-chewing Philadelphia run game will help Hurts in the H2H attempts prop.

GLENDALE, Ariz.- Recently crowned regular season MVP Patrick Mahomes will lead the underdog Kansas City Chiefs against Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles. On Thursday’s NFL award ceremony, Hurts finished second place for the MVP award while Mahomes won 48 out of 50 first-place votes.

With most props available on online gambling sites being passing-based, it comes as little surprise that Mahomes is favored for nearly every prop. Despite this, value exists in using the given spread for some stats, such as pass attempts.

Eagles Gameplan Will Limit Mahomes’ Attempts

Odds For Super Bowl Pass Attempts H2H

• Jalen Hurts +7.5 (-115)
• Patrick Mahomes -7.5 (-115)

During the regular season, Mahomes averages a big 38 pass attempts per game, among the highest in the league. Meanwhile, Hurts averages about 31 passes, making the spread appear very close at first glance.

However, several prospective game plan developments may make this prop closer than expected. Firstly, the Eagles will look to maintain possession of the ball and keep it away from MVP Patrick Mahomes, an idea supported by their eighth ranked time of possession, controlling the ball for 52% of the game on average. This is a strategy that paid dividends for the Cincinnati Bengals against the Chiefs in the regular season, where Mahomes threw a measly 27 passes and lost in the only game where he had under 30 attempts.

These long drives would further give Hurts the chance to attempt more passes, especially if the Eagles’ top ranked pass defense can stall a few drives and force punts to generate even more opportunities for the offense.

Eagles’ Defense is Weakest Vs the Run

With the recent activation of Chiefs RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC now comes into the game with two capable rushers each averaging over four yards per carry on the season. With a Philadelphia defense that ranks fifteenth in the league in opposing rush yards per game, the Chiefs could look to put the ball on the ground more than expected.

This also inspires some confidence in Hurts keeping the pass attempts close, as each rush that the Chiefs use is another opportunity for Mahomes to not widen the attempts gap. Mahomes also could also end up tossing a big play or two, shortening the field significantly and making his efficiency result in less pass attempts than normal.

Overall, with online sportsbooks giving Hurts a solid -115 odds for a +7.5 pass attempts spread against Mahomes, the big combination of the Eagles stout pass defense, a run-heavy clock-killing gameplan, and long drives with plenty of Hurts passing opportunity will be crucial to keeping the spread close and cashing in on the approachable odds.