- The strength of the Atlanta Brave's and San Diego Padre's lineups gives the over a great chance tonight.
- First inning pitching struggles indicate a strong probability of a first-inning run.
SAN DIEGO - The Atlanta Braves are traveling to California tonight to face off against the San Diego Padres. The pitching matchup in this clash between two 2021 playoff teams will be Charlie Morton (RHP) for the Braves and Joe Musgrove (RHP) for the Padres.
Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres Betting Odds
| Teams | Runline | Win | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | +1.5 (-200) | -107 | Over 7.5 (-115) |
| San Diego Padres | -1.5 (+170) | -113 | Under 7.5 (-105) |
Charlie Morton will be making his second start of the season, as he is roughly five months removed from surgery on his broken leg. Of course, Morton is now famous for fracturing his leg during Game 1 of the 2021 World Series and then proceeding to get three more outs despite the injury.
Despite Morton's cult hero status, the batting lineup for each team suggests that runs will be the story of this game.
Great Lineups Make The Over More Likely
Musgrove and Morton were both solid in their first outings of the year. Musgrove went six innings and only allowed two runs against the Arizona Diamond Backs and Morton went five a third, giving up two runs against the Cincinnati Reds.
When looking at a preseason MLB lineup ranking shows that both those teams have lineups that are believed to be in the bottom third of the league. On that same list, the Braves rank second and the Padres rank 14th.
Those rankings are strongly based on how each lineup faired in 2021.
Comparing The Braves And Padres Lineups To The National League In 2021
| Team | Home Runs | Batting Average | Runs Per Game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 239 | 0.244 | 4.91 |
| San Diego Padres | 180 | 0.242 | 4.5 |
| National League Averages | 192.33 | 0.242 | 4.46 |
Of those three categories, only the Padres' home run total was below the National League's average and they still scored more runs per game than the average NL team.
Despite such great lineups, online sportsbooks have given this game the lowest run total of any game tonight.
First Inning Scoring With Plus Odds Despite Previous Success
MLB bettors have come to love betting on first inning scores based on how simple they are. Betting on any runs in the Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres matchup seems fairly simple, especially with how the teams have performed this season.
First Inning Run Odds
- Over 0.5 Runs +110
- Under 0.5 Runs -145
Over both the Braves and Padres last three games, each team has given up an average of over one run per first inning. In fact, opponents have averaged two runs per first inning against the Padres in their last three games, with that total dropping to one run allowed per first inning all season.
The Braves allowed two runs in the first inning of their last game, bringing their season average up to 0.43 runs allowed per first inning.
Both teams have struggled to hit in the first inning so far this season, with both ranking in the bottom half of runs scored in the opening inning per game.
Interestingly enough, last year both teams ranked in the top half of the league in first inning runs per game. If either team gets going then the over hits, and based on their first inning pitching and hitting stats it is likely at least one of the teams scores a run.
