- Kyle Larson has +275 odds to win the FireKeepers Casino 400.
- Larson additionally has +130 odds to finish in the top two of the race.
- Behind Larson on the odds boards is Chase Elliott, and the two are highly likely to do well in this race.
BROOKLYN, Mich. - The FireKeepers Casino 400 will take place on Sunday at 3 p.m. EST, and feature the best drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series. Series leader Kyle Larson is set to start off in the first spot on the starting grid, and also occupies the top spot on the online sportsbooks.
Larson is followed on the odds boards by Chase Elliott, who also follows him on the starting grid.
NASCAR Cup Series - FireKeepers Casino 400 Odds
- Kyle Larson #5 +275
- Chase Elliott #9 +650
- Kevin Harvick #4 +700
- Kyle Busch #18 +725
- Denny Hamlin #11 +800
- Martin Truex Jr. #19 +800
- Joey Logano #22 +900
Larson and Elliott are two of the biggest stories in NASCAR at the moment, and they’re dominant performers - both of them are more than 100 points ahead of third place Kyle Busch.
FireKeepers Casino 400 Odds - Top 2 Finish
- Chase Elliott Or Kyle Larson To Finish In The Top 2 -225
The pair have been so dominant that they have -225 odds for at least one of them to finish in the top two of the race.
These odds carry an implied probability of 69.23%. NASCAR bettors can compare these odds to the odds for each of them to get a top-two finish to see where the value is.
FireKeepers Casino 400 - Top 2 Finish Odds
- Kyle Larson #5 +130
- Chase Elliott #9 +290
Larson’s +130 odds carry an implied probability of 43.48%, meaning he is slightly below 50% to finish in the top two on his own. Elliott’s +290 odds carry an implied probability of 25.64%, far below Larson’s but still far outstripping the rest of the field.
Now, it’s not as simple as just adding those up, because there are situations in which both of them finish in the top two. So, what we need to do is find out what the percentage chances are of neither of them making top two are, and use that to derive what the actual odds on the combined top two finish odds should be. If there is a 66.52% chance of Larson not making top two, and a 76.36% chance of Elliott not making top two, then we can multiply those chances together to get a rough estimate of the chances that neither of them makes the top two.
Advertising Disclosure
USAOnlineSportsbooks.com provides you with the most current information regarding sports betting and fantasy with the help of commissions we receive from links you may click on our site.
When that is done, we see that there is a 17.05% chance of neither of them making the top two - which would seem to imply that the combined odds prop should have odds closer to -485 (an implied 82.95% chance) than -225.
In other words, there seems to be a decent amount of value in betting on the combined top two finish odds at -225.
Confounding Variables
There are some problems with this methodology. First, working backwards like this assumes that the individual odds are accurate. Bettors have no way of knowing that, so it’s possible that instead of the odds on the combined top two finish being full of value, the odds on the individual top two finish are just bad.
Another potential problem is the vig - there could be different vigs for the different markets, which could make this not a 1:1 comparison.
Overall, what this investigation reveals is merely an apparent discrepancy between the odds for each to individually finish in the top two, and the combined odds for one of them to do it. Still, it’s extremely interesting to note a discrepancy of this magnitude.
Maxwell joined the USAOnlineSportsbooks team in 2019. He focuses on creating sports betting content that informs and educates. He focuses on the NBA, the NFL, College Football and Basketball, and whatever else comes across his desk.
