Farewell, Anderson Silva – UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva Odds

• Anderson Silva is set to face off with Uriah Hall in his retirement match in the UFC.
• Silva is one of the most decorated fighters of all time, but is 45 years old.
• Silva has +180 odds to pull off the upset victory in his final fight.

LAS VEGAS - The MMA world is set to bid farewell to one of its heroes, Anderson Silva, as he steps into the octagon for the last time.

This matchup marks Silva’s retirement fight in the UFC, although, as fight fans may know, retirement doesn’t always mean they’re gone forever.

That said, Silva deserves to be taken at his word - and this match should be a worthy sendoff for a great fighter.

So, let’s check out the odds for Silva’s sendoff match against Uriah Hall at online sportsbooks.

Anderson Silva vs. Uriah Hall

• Uriah Hall -230
• Anderson Silva +180

Silva enters this matchup as an understandable underdog. He’s about nine years older than Hall, and well on the downside of his career.

The lone bright spot for Silva recently was a quality performance against Israel Adesanya, which he lost via decision.

Silva was not by any means better than Adesanya (he landed about half the significant strikes that Adesanya did), but he passed the eye test against a great fighter to a degree that MMA fighters hadn’t seen out of him in a long time.

Adesanya is a star, the undisputed champion at Middleweight in the UFC. Hall is not that. Hall is a real fighter though, a tough 36-year-old with a lot to prove still. He’s currently ranked 10th in the division, while Silva is unranked.

A whopping 80% of Hall’s victories come via KO or TKO, while 65% of Silva’s victories come via that method.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the odds for specific finishes.

Method of Victory Odds

• Uriah Hall Wins By KO, TKO Or DQ +130
• Uriah Hall Wins By Decision Or Technical Decision +220
• Anderson Silva Wins By Decision Or Technical Decision +350
• Anderson Silva Wins By KO, TKO Or DQ +550
• Anderson Silva Wins By Submission +1000
• Uriah Hall Wins By Submission +1400
• Draw Or Technical Draw +5000

Interestingly, Hall’s odds to win seem more pronounced on these odds boards than they are on the straight-up odds.

The two most likely outcomes are a hall victory by KO/TKO/DQ or a Hall victory by decision. This does make some sense. Hall has only won two fights by decision - 13% of his victories.

That said, for Silva’s odds to win by KO/TKO/DQ to be as long as they are, one might suspect that these odds are a little sharper than the overall odds.

It seems as though the lines in the method of victory section imply that Hall is a bit more favored than the actual lines for the fight do.

Hall’s odds to win via various methods are as follows. He is +130 to win via KO/TKO/DQ, +220 to win via decision, and +1400 to win via submission.

The +130 odds imply 43.5% probability, the +220 odds imply 31.3% probability, and the +1400 odds imply 6.7% probability.

Some of this is going to be simply from the fact that the sportsbooks are taking their cut, but this does seem to imply that Hall’s chances are greater than the basic moneyline makes them seem.

Perhaps Silva is benefitting from the fact that his name is Anderson Silva in the straight-up moneylines.

These two fighters finish the majority of their matches via KO/TKO/DQ. Hall at an 80% clip and Silva at a 65% clip. The fact that the two most likely options are not each fighter's respective odds to win by KO/TKO/DQ is a bit of a canary in the coal mine.

This tells us a couple of important pieces of information for UFC bettors.

Hall’s moneyline might be a decent value bet based on this information, but it might be a bit less value-filled than his odds to win via KO.

If you want to bet on Silva to win, take his odds to win via KO. They are more than fair in terms of payout relative to likelihood.