- Ciryl Gane to win by decision has +200 odds in the main event against Derrick Lewis.
- Michael Chiesa is a -105 betting underdog against Vicente Luque.
- Rafael Fiziev to knockout Bobby Green is listed at +160.
- Karolina Kowalkiewicz is just -130 on the moneyline against Jessica Penne.
HOUSTON – The UFC 265 card features an interim heavyweight championship belt on the line. From a betting perspective, there is tons of value to be found throughout the card.
Main Event: Gane vs Lewis, Interim Heavyweight Championship Bout
Ciryl Gane will face Derrick Lewis in the five-round main event for the interim heavyweight championship on Saturday night. The background for this fight is arguably the most intriguing part as after the heavyweight belt was defended just three times in three years, the UFC made a criticized move in introducing an interim belt just three months after Francis Ngannou had become champion.
Between June 2019 and March 2021 Ngannou fought once … for a combined 20 seconds. Couldn’t sniff an IC title shot. And now three months after he wins, and seems to be on the cusp of superstardom, he has to see an IC title fight made. Doesn’t seem right.
— Ariel Helwani (@arielhelwani) June 28, 2021
Regardless, the online sportsbooks favor Gane over the hometown Lewis. Gane, at -350 on the moneyline, may be best bet on through the method of victory prop.
Method Of Victory Odds
- Ciryl Gane By Finish -115
- Ciryl Gane by Decision +200
- Derrick Lewis By Finish +300
- Derrick Lewis By Decision +1000
Gane is an undefeated 9-0 in his MMA career and has won each of his last two fights by decision.
Both fights were five rounds and he never seemed to slow down or take his foot off the gas. He dominated all five rounds of each fight. Gane has fought some heavy-handed strikers like Lewis and has been able to land his shots and get out without absorbing much damage.
Each of Gane’s last two fights was masterfully maneuvered and quite frankly, Lewis is probably the least technical fighter he’ll have faced in the UFC. All Gane has to do is avoid the big shot from Lewis and he’ll walk out as the interim champion. Gane by decision at +200 is too generous to avoid.
Michael Chiesa Vs Vicente Luque
Anytime that Vicente Luque is in the octagon it’s sure to be an entertaining fight. He has a tough matchup against submission-specialist Michael Chiesa, but the sports betting sites still favor him, even if only by a small margin.
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Chiesa vs Luque Moneyline Odds
- Michael Chiesa -105
- Vicente Luque -115
Luque has the clear advantage on the feet as he is a polished striker, but Chiesa’s limited striking is made up for with his expertise on the mat.
Chiesa has 18 wins, 11 of which have come by submission while the other seven were by a decision. Chiesa will be doing anything he can to take the fight to the ground and if he succeeds, should be able to secure round wins or work to find a submission finish.
Rafael Fiziev vs Bobby Green
Rafael Fiziev is one of the most promising up-in-comers in the UFC at the moment. He’s 9-1 in his career with six wins by knockout.
He’ll be facing Bobby Green, who is experienced but not nearly the fighter he used to be. In his last 10 fights, he has lost six times and was rewarded a draw after his opponent got a point deducted in a seventh.
Method of Victory Odds
- Fiziev by decision +120
- Fiziev By Finish +160
Considering Fiziev is a -300 favorite on the moneyline, it may surprise those betting on the UFC to find both methods of victory with plus-money value. This looks to be a clear case of the UFC feeding an aging fighter with some name recognition to a rising star to help build the brand. Fiziev by knockout is too good to pass up.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Jessica Penne
Karolina Kowalkiewicz started her career with 10 wins and no losses entering her first title fight. Since that loss, she hasn’t been the same.
Kowalkiewicz has lost six of her last eight fights and despite it being against almost exclusively the top competition, it’s a bad sign.
Kowalkiewicz vs Penne Moneyline Odds
- Karolina Kowalkiewicz -130
- Jessica Penne +110
However, her opponent, Jessica Penne hasn’t been much better. She’s 38-years old and made her first appearance in the octagon in four years back in April. She beat Loopy Godinez by split decision, but many believe she didn’t earn the win.
Penne didn’t look too good in her return to the ring and while she’s set to improve with some extra work under her belt, Kowalkiewicz’s raw talent and skills should be enough to emerge with a win.
Nick got involved with the world of sports at a young age and never turned his back on it. He graduated from Penn State University with a degree in Broadcast/Journalism. In his free time, you can catch him at the bottom of the leaderboards on any video game he’s playing.
