Australian Open Sunday Best Bets On Nadal, Medvedev

• The Australian Open continues on Sunday with elite players taking the stage.
• Rafael Nadal has -650 odds to defeat Fabio Fognini.
• Daniil Medvedev is favored by 10.5 games on the spread over Mackenzie McDonald.

LAS VEGAS - The field is narrowing down for the Australian Open, and some of the best players in the world will be in focus on Sunday evening.

At 7:00 p.m. EST, Rafael Nadal faces off against Fabio Fognini. At the same time, Daniil Medvedev battles Mackenzie McDonald.

Let’s dive into the odds.

Nadal vs. Fognini Betting

Rafael Nadal is in the process of hunting for his 21st Grand Slam victory, a number that would put him alone atop the tennis world.

On Sunday, Nadal faces off against Fabio Fognini, an opponent that he has a solid head to head record against

The moneyline favors Nadal, as it likely should. In their last five matches, Fognini has come out on top only once.

In their last 10 matches (since August of 2015), Fognini has taken only two.

That said, -650 odds imply an 86% chance of an event occurring, and the most generous reading of Nadal and Fognini’s matchup is that Nadal wins about 80% of them. +450 implies about an 18% chance of an event occurring, which means that neither side of this moneyline wager is a good value bet due to the vig, assuming Nadal wins about 80% of the time.

This moneyline could be a bet to stay away from, as the sportsbooks are likely to win no matter what.

Medvedev vs. McDonald Betting

Daniil Medvedev is one of the up and comers of the tennis world, a star of the generation after the generation held down by the Big Three.

Medvedev, the fourth seed in this tournament, had never won a five-set match in a Grand Slam before the third round of this very tournament.

It took his coach leaving the match in a show of confidence in Medvedev for him to take the win, but Medvedev won, and vanquished one of his demons.

“He said just before leaving that he’s sure I’m going to win the match. He’s going to leave me alone to be more calm,” said Medvedev.

The gambit paid off and Medvedev now has to contend with Mackenzie McDonald.

This is a monstrous spread. The two competitors have faced off three times before, with Medvedev taking all three wins by 2-0 scores.

That said, it’s hard to want to take the side of the player handicapped by 10.5, which is why there’s a bit of shading McDonald’s direction - tennis betting enthusiasts seem to be taking his spread.

This is one of the most lopsided matchups remaining on the board, although intriguingly one could compare it favorably to Rafael Nadal’s matchup against Cameron Norrie on Friday. In that matchup, Nadal was a -5000 favorite but was favored by 10.0 games on the spread, while in this one, Medvedev is -4000, but is favored by 10.5 games on the spread.

Now, granted, the difference between -4000 and -5000 is quite small - 2.5% vs. 2% - but it’s not nothing.

With Medvedev conquering his demons last round, he’s quite likely to make those -4000 odds look justified.