- Aryna Sabalenka has -325 moneyline odds to defeat Jessica Pegula in the 2024 Women's US Open final.
- While Pegula smashed the game spread against her in the Semifinals (-2), Sabalenka missed -5 games by the hook.
NEW YORK – The battle between the second seeded Aryna Sabalenka and six seeded Jessica Pegula declares the winner of the 2024 Open US Women's Final on Saturday. With Sabalenka the secure favorite, threats like Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff, and Elena Rybakina are in the rearview. Now, online sportsbooks list Pegula as a +260 underdog against last year's runner up.
Jess Pegula Vs Aryna Sabalenka Betting Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Navarro | +4.5 (-125) | +260 | O21 (-120) |
| Aryna Sabalenka | -4.5 (-105) | -325 | U21 (-110) |
To compare, Emma Navarro was also a 4.5-game underdog and covered against Sabalenka in the semifinals. But, Pegula's moneyline odds of +260 are much shorter than Navarro's were at +325. Likewise, Sabalenka's odds to win dropped from -425 to -325 despite having the same game spread.
Still, Aryna has put her hard-court dominance on display thus far at the US Open, winning five of her six matches in straight sets. She also dominated Qinwen Zheng by nine games in the quarterfinals and Elise Mertens by six in the Round of 16.
Will We See A Third Set?
The 20.5-game US Open betting total has -120 odds to go over. That total went over in Navarro and Sabalenka’s match, hitting 22 games with a tiebreaker involved. With that, Sablenka has seen the over hit twice throughout the tournament, just as Pegula has as well.
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Any match featuring Jessica Pegula as a 4.5-game underdog calls for attention. Pegula defeated No. 1 seed Iga Swiatek in straight sets in the quarterfinals and was listed as a -150 moneyline odds favorite at tennis sportsbooks on Thursday night against Karolina Muchova.
Perhaps being overlooked yet again, this will be the eighth match between the American and the Belarusian and the second in under a month. With Sabalenka beating Pegula in the 2024 Cincinnati Open Women's Finals, she now has taken five of the seven matches. With six of them finishing in two sets, the trends point to the under.
But as long as Pegula connects on her first serve, she could beat Sabalenka as she did last year for the WTA Finals in Cancun.
Zach graduated from Florida State University after majoring in Writing, Editing, and Media with a minor in Communication. He has a passion for sports betting and specializes in DFS for NFL, NBA, and MLB. At the casino, you can find Zach playing blackjack or roulette.
