Line Shopping The Main Event Of UFC Fight Night – Blaydes vs. Lewis

• Curtis Blaydes is a huge favorite over Derrick Lewis.
• Blaydes’ odds range from -470 to -435 on the major sportsbooks.
• Bettors can find value by shopping UFC betting lines between multiple online sportsbooks.

LAS VEGAS – On Saturday, UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis features the main event of Curtis Blaydes vs. Derrick Lewis as two top heavyweights collide.

Blaydes is the second-ranked heavyweight in the division, while Lewis is fourth. Make no mistake, despite their closeness in ranking this fight is not predicted to be very close.

Blaydes vs. Lewis Moneyline @ Bovada

• Blaydes -450
• Lewis +325

Blaydes is a huge favorite on the moneyline. To understand why, it’s important to understand that the UFC’s heavyweight division is not that deep.

Stipe Miocic and Francis Ngannou are great fighters, and Blaydes seems to be a high-level fighter in his own right (despite a loss to Ngannou), but most of the rest of the division has visible flaws and high profile losses.

Alexander Volkov, for example, lost to Blaydes. Jairzinho Rozenstruik lost to Ngannou. Alistair Overeem just got demolished by Volkov.

With Ngannou set to face off against Miocic, Blaydes has been left with Lewis as a challenger - and Lewis does not seem up to the challenge according to the sportsbooks.

Blaydes vs. Lewis Moneyline @ BetOnline

• Blaydes -470
• Lewis +370

Here are the odds for MyBookie.

Blaydes vs. Lewis Moneyline @ MyBookie

• Blaydes -470
• Lewis +370

The major online sportsbooks all agree that Blaydes is a big favorite, but disagree on degree, which creates an opportunity for line shopping.

Anyone wanting to take Blaydes’ moneyline can grab it at MyBookie, where it sits at -435, better than at Bovada and BetOnline.

For those who wish to wager on Lewis, the opportunity is best at BetOnline, where Lewis’ odds are +370, generating a larger payout if he wins.

Specific Finish Odds

Lewis is a very straightforward fighter - he has elite stopping power, and that’s his calling card. A total of 79% of his wins are reached by KO or TKO.

Blaydes is similar to Lewis, but quicker and more skilled. He’s racked up 71% of his wins by KO/TKO and the other 29% by decision.

Blaydes vs. Lewis Method of Victory Odds @ BetOnline

• Curtis Blaydes by Points +325
• Curtis Blaydes by KO/TKO or DQ -150
• Curtis Blaydes by Submission +950
• Derrick Lewis by Points +1000
• Derrick Lewis by KO/TKO or DQ +450
• Derrick Lewis by Submission +1600
• Draw +6600

Here are the odds on MyBookie:

Blaydes vs. Lewis Method of Victory Odds @ MyBookie

• Lewis By KO, TKO Or DQ +400
• Lewis By Decision Or Technical Decision +1200
• Lewis By Submission +1400
• Blaydes By By KO, TKO Or DQ -140
• Blaydes By Decision Or Technical Decision +330
• Blaydes By Submission +800
• Draw +5000

Given the matchup between the two fighters, it seems obvious that the most likely outcome according to the sportsbooks is Blaydes by KO/TKO.

BetOnline has -150 odds on that outcome while MyBookie has -140 odds on that outcome, meaning both sportsbooks agree that it is the odds on favorite, but bettors will be better served at MyBookie if they want to wager on it.

The rest of the odds are mild long shots. Blaydes has never submitted anyone, but he has +800 odds on MyBookie and +950 odds on BetOnline to win with a submission. Blaydes by decision is another possibility, as it is likely that Blaydes can out-box Lewis on the feet if neither end up going down.

For Blaydes by decision, BetOnline has +325 odds while MyBookie has +330 odds, meaning MyBookie just edges it out again.

As far as specific odds on Lewis, his most likely path to victory is by knockout, where he has +400 odds at MyBookie and +450 odds at BetOnline. Lewis by Submission and Lewis by Decision are both at or above +1000 at both of the sportsbooks, while a draw is slightly better value at BetOnline compared to MyBookie.

This matchup presents a great chance for UFC betting fans to shop lines and gain potential value.