- Kentucky is set to face off against NC State in the Gator Bowl.
- Kentucky is favored in the matchup, despite NC State having a better record and being ranked.
- The moneyline gives Kentucky -135 odds to win the Gator Bowl.
LAS VEGAS - The Gator Bowl is one of the last college football bowl games on the schedule for this season.
The game takes place on Saturday at 12:00 p.m. EST and features a matchup between Kentucky and NC State. Kentucky moved around near the bottom of the SEC for most of the season, while NC State was quite a solid team in the ACC.
In a normal year, Kentucky’s four-win schedule wouldn’t be enough to make a bowl game, but they’re here now due to COVID-19.
Then again, in a normal year, they wouldn’t have played a conference only schedule - this is a reasonably good team.
Gator Bowl Betting Odds
- Kentucky -135
- NC State +115
Kentucky enters this matchup favored over the higher-ranked NC State. NC State is currently ranked 23rd by the CFP committee, while Kentucky is unranked.
However, while NC State has a better record than Kentucky, Kentucky played a lot of great teams in the SEC this year.
Three of Kentucky’s losses came at the hands of truly elite teams: Alabama, Florida and Georgia.
ESPN’s FPI agrees with the sportsbooks that Kentucky is favored in the matchup. FPI has Kentucky winning 57.2% of the time, while NC State will win 42.8% of the time.
This is pretty close to what is implied by the moneyline in this matchup.
Let’s take a look at the implied percent chances of winning, according to FPI and the moneyline’s implied odds without the vig.
Gator Bowl Odds And FPI
- Kentucky FPI: 57.2%
- Kentucky Moneyline: 55.26%
- NC State FPI: 42.8%
- NC State Moneyline: 44.74%
So, if one trusts ESPN’s FPI analysis, the play seems to be to wager on Kentucky, as FPI thinks they have a better chance of winning than the sportsbooks are giving them.
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However, the margin is quite small, and perhaps not worth going all-in on.
Gator Bowl Betting Odds
- Kentucky -2.5 (-110)
- NC State +2.5 (-110)
The major sportsbooks opened the spread with Kentucky favored by three points, and it has since moved to where it is now, with Kentucky favored by 2.5 points.
Kentucky has historically performed well against the spread when they’re faced with good teams.
The Wildcats have a record of 15-5-1 against the spread when they are playing against teams with winning records. In addition, Kentucky performs well as a favorite, with a 9-4 ATS record in their last 13 games as favorites.
NC State has a couple of interesting trends going for them.
For one thing, the Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with losing records. However, one must consider that those teams are ACC teams with losing records, and a losing team in the ACC is a far cry from a losing team in the SEC.
NC State has not performed well when they are underdogs, however. They sit with a 4-10 ATS record in their last 14 games as underdogs.
Overall, the trends seem to lean in Kentucky’s direction, although the line movement has been the opposite way.
This matchup looks like a very interesting one, and college football bettors have a lot to consider when wagering on it.
Maxwell joined the USAOnlineSportsbooks team in 2019. He focuses on creating sports betting content that informs and educates. He focuses on the NBA, the NFL, College Football and Basketball, and whatever else comes across his desk.
